About the Quarterback Success Predictability Algorithm (QSPA)
My name is Mark Pringle. I'm an ASP.NET web developer and an avid NFL and college football fan. In 2019, I began developing a list of attributes that I believed were essential to predicting whether a college quarterback would succeed at the NFL level.
Over time, I refined those attributes and developed a weighted scoring system that evaluates college quarterbacks based on the qualities I believe matter most at the professional level. That system eventually became the Quarterback Success Predictability Algorithm (QSPA).
A Different Approach to Evaluating Quarterbacks
Unlike traditional quarterback evaluation methods, QSPA places relatively little emphasis on college statistics, win-loss records, passing yards, touchdown totals, or individual awards.
Why? Because college production does not necessarily translate into NFL success.
A quarterback can accumulate extraordinary statistics in college because of superior surrounding talent, an exceptional offensive system, favorable competition, or outstanding coaching. While those accomplishments have value, they don't always reveal whether a quarterback possesses the attributes necessary to succeed against NFL defenses.
QSPA is designed to evaluate the quarterback himself, rather than simply the results produced by the offense around him.
The central philosophy is straightforward: The qualities that make a quarterback successful in college are not always the same qualities that make him successful in the NFL.
What Does QSPA Evaluate?
The algorithm emphasizes attributes that I believe are particularly important to long-term NFL quarterback success.
- Football Intelligence and Situational Awareness: Does the quarterback understand game situations, recognize defensive tendencies, and consistently make intelligent decisions?
- Defensive Recognition and Processing Speed: Can he identify defensive coverages, recognize blitzes, and process information quickly before and after the snap?
- Progression Through Reads: Does he consistently work through his receiving options, or does he lock onto his primary target?
- Anticipation and Accuracy: Can he deliver the football accurately before a receiver becomes open, rather than waiting until separation is obvious?
- Poise Under Pressure: Can he remain composed, make sound decisions, and deliver accurate throws when the pocket collapses?
- Intelligent Athleticism: Does he use his mobility to extend passing opportunities rather than unnecessarily abandoning the pocket?
- Situational Running Ability: Does he recognize when running the football is the smartest decision, particularly in critical situations?
- Defensive Manipulation: Can he use his eyes, shoulders, and body positioning to influence defenders and create passing opportunities?
- Work Ethic and Film Study: Does he demonstrate the discipline, preparation, and commitment necessary to continually improve?
- Competitive Nature and Leadership: Does he elevate the players around him, respond positively to adversity, and demonstrate a team-first mentality?
- Performance in Critical Moments: Does his awareness, decision-making, and execution remain strong when the pressure is greatest?
These attributes are not weighted equally. QSPA assigns greater importance to the qualities I believe have the strongest relationship with NFL quarterback success.
For example, the ability to read defenses, process information, anticipate throws, and make intelligent decisions carries more weight than pure athletic ability.
Why Physical Attributes Receive Less Weight
Physical characteristics certainly matter. Arm strength, mobility, durability, and size can influence a quarterback's effectiveness.
However, I believe traditional scouting sometimes places too much emphasis on measurable physical traits, particularly height and overall stature.
Obviously, there are practical limitations. A quarterback who stands 5 feet 3 inches tall would face significant physical obstacles in the NFL. But within a reasonable range of quarterback heights, I believe the importance of height is often overstated.
A quarterback who is 6 feet 5 inches tall with exceptional arm strength but struggles to read defenses may be less likely to succeed than a shorter quarterback who processes information quickly, anticipates passing windows, and consistently makes intelligent decisions.
Mental processing, decision-making, and intelligent execution should generally outweigh physical measurements.
Physical tools must be evaluated in the context of how effectively a quarterback uses them.
Separating College Production From NFL Potential
One of the biggest challenges in evaluating college quarterbacks is separating individual ability from the environment in which they play.
Consider two quarterbacks.
One plays behind an outstanding offensive line, throws to future NFL receivers, and operates in a system that regularly creates wide-open passing opportunities.
The other plays with less talented teammates, faces constant pressure, and must repeatedly make difficult decisions against superior competition.
The first quarterback might produce substantially better statistics, but that doesn't necessarily make him the better NFL prospect.
QSPA attempts to identify the underlying skills that are more likely to transfer to professional football, regardless of the quarterback's college environment.
In particular, the algorithm places significant value on how quarterbacks respond when their initial play design breaks down. Can they identify secondary options? Do they recognize pressure? Can they create opportunities without taking unnecessary risks?
These situations can reveal more about a quarterback's NFL potential than an impressive college stat line.
The Importance of Human Evaluation
Although QSPA produces a numerical rating, it is important to understand that the algorithm is only as reliable as the evaluations entered into it.
Much of its effectiveness depends on the scout's ability to accurately assess each quarterback's attributes.
For example, determining whether a quarterback consistently progresses through his reads requires more than simply watching a few highlight videos. It requires careful film study, an understanding of the offensive scheme, and the ability to distinguish between designed reads and genuine quarterback decision-making.
Similarly, evaluating leadership, preparation, competitiveness, and football intelligence requires thoughtful observation and, when possible, reliable information from coaches and others familiar with the player.
Subjective scouting introduces the possibility of bias and inconsistency. For that reason, the long-term goal is to develop clear evaluation standards that allow different scouts to produce reasonably consistent ratings.
The algorithm provides the scoring framework, but the quality of the underlying observations remains essential.
Early Results: Joe Burrow
I originally developed QSPA in 2019, and Joe Burrow has received the highest rating of any quarterback I have evaluated to date.
Burrow represents many of the characteristics that inspired the algorithm: exceptional processing ability, defensive recognition, anticipation, pocket awareness, competitiveness, and the ability to remain composed under pressure.
His success illustrates the type of quarterback QSPA is designed to identify.
However, one highly rated quarterback succeeding in the NFL does not, by itself, establish the predictive accuracy of the algorithm.
A more meaningful test will involve evaluating a larger group of college quarterbacks, recording their ratings before their NFL careers develop, and comparing those ratings against measurable professional outcomes.
Measuring the Algorithm's Predictive Accuracy
My long-term objective is not simply to assign scores to college quarterbacks. It is to determine whether those scores can meaningfully predict future NFL performance.
As the QSPA database grows, I intend to compare quarterback ratings with subsequent NFL outcomes, including career longevity, starting opportunities, passing efficiency, and overall performance.
This will also make it possible to examine which individual attributes have the strongest statistical relationships with professional success.
For example, does defensive processing ability predict NFL performance more effectively than athleticism? Does anticipatory passing correlate more strongly with success than arm strength? Are certain combinations of attributes particularly important?
Answering these questions with historical data could help refine the algorithm's weighting system and improve its predictive accuracy over time.
To avoid evaluating the algorithm only through successful examples, it will be equally important to study quarterbacks who receive high QSPA ratings but struggle in the NFL, as well as those who receive lower ratings and exceed expectations.
The ultimate goal is to move beyond subjective opinions and develop a repeatable, evidence-based evaluation system.
The Philosophy Behind QSPA
The NFL is filled with extraordinary athletes. But athletic talent alone does not make an extraordinary quarterback.
The position demands an uncommon combination of intelligence, anticipation, discipline, competitiveness, awareness, and the ability to make excellent decisions in fractions of a second.
QSPA is built around my belief that these qualities, when properly identified and evaluated, provide valuable insight into a college quarterback's potential for NFL success.
The algorithm is an evolving project, not a scientifically validated prediction model at this stage. Its value will ultimately be determined by how consistently its ratings correspond with actual NFL outcomes.
My goal is simple: identify the college quarterbacks who possess the attributes necessary to become successful NFL quarterbacks, even when their college statistics don't tell the entire story.